GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3507 · narrative · 24H

Will "neverdoom" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 59% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

19 of 1693 launches in the last hour referenced "neverdoom" (8 distinct creators, rank #20). Last 15m momentum 4.49×.

Made2026-10-14 01:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 01:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 01:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.200250160009851,
      "momentum": 1.502602687763989,
      "diversity": -0.39473684210526316
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5876012869158805
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "neverdoom",
    "rank60": 20,
    "share15": 0.05172413793103448,
    "share60": 0.011511216056670602,
    "total15": 376,
    "total60": 1693,
    "momentum": 4.493368700265252,
    "diversity": 0.42105263157894735,
    "launches15": 19,
    "launches60": 19,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 220,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999105555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999962731481481
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5876012869158805
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 01:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.345
Log loss0.886
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.026830413841326804,
  "totalAfter": 41326,
  "shareBefore": 0.0004393774714982772,
  "totalBefore": 43243,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 19
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 59% that "neverdoom" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.04% → 0.00% (-100%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "neverdoom" (24H). momentum contributed +1.50 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashcd1789446410e715a0c68a5cfe9c19e599efd1c65fa63718ab34df7cf91c0118
Previous hasha1223794a06093edc4ea61a065416c1c3b5bf7a0e91591a03ae4149d3d779a53