Will "intelligence" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 45% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

22 of 1693 launches in the last hour referenced "intelligence" (18 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 0.90×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.22224068113863232,
      "momentum": -0.1068352246701115,
      "diversity": 0.08181818181818187
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4498224287427186
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "intelligence",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.011936339522546418,
    "share60": 0.013282172373081463,
    "total15": 376,
    "total60": 1693,
    "momentum": 0.8986737400530503,
    "diversity": 0.8181818181818182,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 22,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 18
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 220,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999105555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999962731481481
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4498224287427186
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.006533417219184049,
  "shareRatio": 0.8240100460526262,
  "totalAfter": 41326,
  "shareBefore": 0.007931919617047846,
  "totalBefore": 43243,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 270,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 343
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity