GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3504 · narrative · 6H

Will "king" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 56% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 1693 launches in the last hour referenced "king" (7 distinct creators, rank #130). Last 15m momentum 1.50×.

Made2026-10-14 01:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 07:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 01:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": 0.40399039909587925,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5567846729819851
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "king",
    "rank60": 130,
    "share15": 0.006631299734748011,
    "share60": 0.004427390791027155,
    "total15": 376,
    "total60": 1693,
    "momentum": 1.497789566755084,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 220,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999105555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999850925925926
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5567846729819851
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 07:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.196
Log loss0.586
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0059000333964154515,
  "shareRatio": 1.7882107874316244,
  "totalAfter": 8983,
  "shareBefore": 0.0032938076416337285,
  "totalBefore": 13662,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 53,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 45
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 56% that "king" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.33% → 0.59% (+79%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "king" (6H). momentum contributed +0.40 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash080afaa7bcce1975d66b5830dce0a5acd3dc7b03e1fbe974de3a0bb26886c353
Previous hash2878b6bfaf0193553daaa6bc3bfff8055f5a44574d54b293cdbb72fe7f0872c8