Ledger / Prediction #3504 · narrative · 6H
Will "king" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 56% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
7 of 1693 launches in the last hour referenced "king" (7 distinct creators, rank #130). Last 15m momentum 1.50×.
Made2026-10-14 01:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 07:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 01:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.050470835493181924,
"momentum": 0.40399039909587925,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.5567846729819851
},
"features": {
"term": "king",
"rank60": 130,
"share15": 0.006631299734748011,
"share60": 0.004427390791027155,
"total15": 376,
"total60": 1693,
"momentum": 1.497789566755084,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 2,
"launches60": 7,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 7
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 220,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9999105555555555,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999850925925926
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5567846729819851
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 07:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.196
Log loss0.586
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0059000333964154515,
"shareRatio": 1.7882107874316244,
"totalAfter": 8983,
"shareBefore": 0.0032938076416337285,
"totalBefore": 13662,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 53,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 45
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 56% that "king" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.33% → 0.59% (+79%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "king" (6H). momentum contributed +0.40 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
080afaa7bcce1975d66b5830dce0a5acd3dc7b03e1fbe974de3a0bb26886c353Previous hash
2878b6bfaf0193553daaa6bc3bfff8055f5a44574d54b293cdbb72fe7f0872c8