Ledger / Prediction #3502 · narrative · 6H
Will "born" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 52% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
23 of 1693 launches in the last hour referenced "born" (14 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 1.63×.
Made2026-10-14 01:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 07:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 01:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.22890844552425738,
"momentum": 0.4856684301101463,
"diversity": -0.16956521739130428
},
"rawProbability": 0.5203657663071938
},
"features": {
"term": "born",
"rank60": 9,
"share15": 0.022546419098143235,
"share60": 0.013872491145218418,
"total15": 376,
"total60": 1693,
"momentum": 1.6252610192448782,
"diversity": 0.6086956521739131,
"launches15": 8,
"launches60": 23,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 14
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 220,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9999105555555555,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999850925925926
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5203657663071938
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 07:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.230
Log loss0.653
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.007347211399309808,
"shareRatio": 1.2563252545588293,
"totalAfter": 8983,
"shareBefore": 0.005855658029571073,
"totalBefore": 13662,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 66,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 80
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 52% that "born" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.59% → 0.73% (+25%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "born" (6H). momentum contributed +0.49 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
06839bb8ba98ee2302f696e1fc450141d2e2c4c2b8ef95cbf178b86149590bdfPrevious hash
538804c418e267482d725f26358971376d273fdf46420026bb09ba26dcc19594