GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3502 · narrative · 6H

Will "born" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 52% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

23 of 1693 launches in the last hour referenced "born" (14 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 1.63×.

Made2026-10-14 01:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 07:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 01:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.22890844552425738,
      "momentum": 0.4856684301101463,
      "diversity": -0.16956521739130428
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5203657663071938
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "born",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.022546419098143235,
    "share60": 0.013872491145218418,
    "total15": 376,
    "total60": 1693,
    "momentum": 1.6252610192448782,
    "diversity": 0.6086956521739131,
    "launches15": 8,
    "launches60": 23,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 14
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 220,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999105555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999850925925926
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5203657663071938
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 07:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.230
Log loss0.653
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.007347211399309808,
  "shareRatio": 1.2563252545588293,
  "totalAfter": 8983,
  "shareBefore": 0.005855658029571073,
  "totalBefore": 13662,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 66,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 80
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 52% that "born" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.59% → 0.73% (+25%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "born" (6H). momentum contributed +0.49 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash06839bb8ba98ee2302f696e1fc450141d2e2c4c2b8ef95cbf178b86149590bdf
Previous hash538804c418e267482d725f26358971376d273fdf46420026bb09ba26dcc19594