Ledger / Prediction #3498 · narrative · 1H

Will "veil" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 21% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

47 of 1693 launches in the last hour referenced "veil" (26 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.33×.

Made2026-10-14 01:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 02:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 01:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3361064533913937,
      "momentum": -1.1053640547812387,
      "diversity": -0.2361702127659574
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.21325294200950415
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "veil",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.009283819628647215,
    "share60": 0.02804014167650531,
    "total15": 376,
    "total60": 1693,
    "momentum": 0.33109032528270277,
    "diversity": 0.5531914893617021,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 47,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 26
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 220,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999105555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999105555555555
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.21325294200950415
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 02:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.045

Log loss0.240

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.023890784982935155,
  "shareRatio": 0.8616737979114928,
  "totalAfter": 1758,
  "shareBefore": 0.027761370348493797,
  "totalBefore": 1693,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 42,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 47
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 21% that "veil" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.78% → 2.39% (-14%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "veil" (1H). momentum contributed -1.11 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf8bdd9c2a459a60caa5e1d501489d7bc0b4fd63994363d5a2f4874eab63ffe97

Previous hashf0a1d22d3d01a12ad43fe3add9a6d197a93dca054f8a87e09184cef780ff8e82