Ledger / Prediction #3495 · token · 1H

Will $STNKDEX still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 11% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 16m ago. X link. Rides hot term "chain".

Made2026-10-14 00:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 01:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 00:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.11461549863791243
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "84YmC5gU6uXjXvFKpSNRArErUurvyDRSzMahxZ2nJPea",
    "name": "Stonkdex",
    "symbol": "STNKDEX",
    "hotTerms": [
      "chain"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 16,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 94,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 2992.4349621687134,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 608,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.11461549863791243
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 01:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.013

Log loss0.122

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-14T00:17:40.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 2994.43234804894,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 4107.605967450863,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 2992.4349621687134,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 5984.869924337427
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 11% that $STNKDEX would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $2,994, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $STNKDEX (1H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashab78628f0c02053d6e4db5de4b11dc7f9b1c46a00af2f94f5628d92c580b8b99

Previous hash44b5e66b2a4dc214543d5e5d5cf1d5d03e4e7391e0f193b1d91f484847db747f