Ledger / Prediction #3492 · narrative · 24H

Will "tailed" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 29% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 1897 launches in the last hour referenced "tailed" (5 distinct creators, rank #171). Last 15m momentum 0.30×.

Made2026-10-14 00:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-15 00:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 00:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": -1.1997489332097508,
      "diversity": -0.04285714285714284
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2898592724784971
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "tailed",
    "rank60": 171,
    "share15": 0.0011904761904761906,
    "share60": 0.003951527924130664,
    "total15": 419,
    "total60": 1897,
    "momentum": 0.3012698412698413,
    "diversity": 0.7142857142857143,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 230,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9949191666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997882986111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2898592724784971
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 00:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.084

Log loss0.342

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0002180391016789011,
  "shareRatio": 0.9477883987550153,
  "totalAfter": 41277,
  "shareBefore": 0.00023126734505087883,
  "totalBefore": 43240,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 9,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 10
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 29% that "tailed" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.02% → 0.02% (-6%). PARTIAL.

— "tailed" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd4c3b84e9ffe32d5b1320925b28f4a22a50b2119261c2087ec4bb63ac31a9b53

Previous hashb90f57d8467db854493d5d28f23c70b903b6b4f6a3d0279480421ad5ea9e4b66