Ledger / Prediction #3489 · narrative · 24H
Will "susan" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 36% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
39 of 1897 launches in the last hour referenced "susan" (3 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.97×.
Made2026-10-14 00:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 00:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 00:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3081185600543319,
"momentum": -0.027933240518346107,
"diversity": -0.8076923076923077
},
"rawProbability": 0.3626794192219604
},
"features": {
"term": "susan",
"rank60": 5,
"share15": 0.02023809523809524,
"share60": 0.020811380400421495,
"total15": 419,
"total60": 1897,
"momentum": 0.9724532851115131,
"diversity": 0.07692307692307693,
"launches15": 8,
"launches60": 39,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 3
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 230,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9949191666666667,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997882986111111
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.3626794192219604
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-15 00:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.406
Log loss1.014
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0014535940111926739,
"shareRatio": 1.1846189479766325,
"totalAfter": 41277,
"shareBefore": 0.0012257169287696577,
"totalBefore": 43240,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 60,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 53
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 36% that "susan" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.12% → 0.15% (+19%). INCORRECT.
— diversity misled on "susan" (24H). diversity contributed -0.81 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
eb84f2cf3c7af17d8d12294313cbce17a6beaec9ff117a3d8e1245c25c64f5d1Previous hash
1f7a74a726cdf8c8e08e689a6ff202550b2b2766f536c54501e726e330abc7b9