Ledger / Prediction #3485 · narrative · 6H

Will "dog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 50% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

43 of 1897 launches in the last hour referenced "dog" (32 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.09×.

Made2026-10-14 00:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 06:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 00:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3227643304889193,
      "momentum": 0.08691558696129839,
      "diversity": -0.006976744186046524
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.49547317901278753
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dog",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.025,
    "share60": 0.02291886195995785,
    "total15": 419,
    "total60": 1897,
    "momentum": 1.0908045977011493,
    "diversity": 0.7441860465116279,
    "launches15": 10,
    "launches60": 43,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 32
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 230,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9949191666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991531944444444
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.49547317901278753
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 06:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.246

Log loss0.684

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.013734466971877043,
  "shareRatio": 0.6151195204359673,
  "totalAfter": 9174,
  "shareBefore": 0.022380030126963633,
  "totalBefore": 13941,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 126,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 312
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 50% that "dog" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 2.24% → 1.37% (-39%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "dog" (6H). diversity contributed -0.01 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf87e60f3f4b65872a4642a443745da14a6807f6aa83f04dfe72eaee056c99d79

Previous hash045c61a2aeb554b753a20545f8accd64ba0ad441bb7cfc3365b37231e7d3c963