Ledger / Prediction #3483 · narrative · 1H
Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 52% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
34 of 1897 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (29 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.98×.
Made2026-10-14 00:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 01:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 00:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.28753839182730917,
"momentum": -0.017755035602590147,
"diversity": 0.12352941176470583
},
"rawProbability": 0.5233112796458645
},
"features": {
"term": "inu",
"rank60": 8,
"share15": 0.017857142857142856,
"share60": 0.018177028451001054,
"total15": 419,
"total60": 1897,
"momentum": 0.9824016563146998,
"diversity": 0.8529411764705882,
"launches15": 7,
"launches60": 34,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 29
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 230,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9949191666666667,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9949191666666667
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5233112796458645
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 01:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.274
Log loss0.741
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.013990267639902677,
"shareRatio": 0.7884057971014492,
"totalAfter": 1644,
"shareBefore": 0.01786652653704677,
"totalBefore": 1903,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 23,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 34
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 52% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.79% → 1.40% (-22%). INCORRECT.
— volume misled on "inu" (1H). volume contributed +0.29 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
91c143344dfb23bd8afdee0c2c72cc11f0c813c1a4d6447cce990ed10305f78dPrevious hash
983ce1b6d35e9c39c059a7c35f4eaec395a4fc40f564f1e5c540e9191e1cd41a