Ledger / Prediction #3478 · token · 6H

Will $XD still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 26m ago. X link, website. No hot term. Creator launched 3 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-14 00:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 06:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 23:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.04545816672765576
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "CdukC9UKJRfVPgMDVvBdkNfnGRF8CuSBhq7H4Gi8pump",
    "name": "The FOMCooor",
    "symbol": "XD",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 26,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3132.2629194876868,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 3
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 693,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.04545816672765576
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 06:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.002

Log loss0.047

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-13T23:34:46.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 2983.9069149458505,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3132.45352418106,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3132.2629194876868,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6264.5258389753735
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that $XD would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $2,984, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $XD (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf005308120c1de220df035ece15412dfd64d5632bd826b46e30fc2f48e402345

Previous hash69710f17a176951a403610da84099df6a3491289b82c719abda6798f7e3b6e7d