Ledger / Prediction #3476 · narrative · 24H

Will "larry" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 27% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 1939 launches in the last hour referenced "larry" (5 distinct creators, rank #169). Last 15m momentum 0.26×.

Made2026-10-14 00:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-15 00:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 23:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": -1.3621653783201961,
      "diversity": -0.04285714285714284
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.27343265027186886
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "larry",
    "rank60": 169,
    "share15": 0.0009900990099009901,
    "share60": 0.003865979381443299,
    "total15": 504,
    "total60": 1939,
    "momentum": 0.2561056105610561,
    "diversity": 0.7142857142857143,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 239,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974308333333334,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998929513888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.27343265027186886
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 00:04 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.075

Log loss0.319

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0002904725019364833,
  "shareRatio": 0.7047712878807207,
  "totalAfter": 41312,
  "shareBefore": 0.0004177206377201736,
  "totalBefore": 43091,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 12,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 18
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 27% that "larry" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.04% → 0.03% (-30%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "larry" (24H). momentum contributed -1.36 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha4b838b30c035db70a635f1ac1098b68a76dd2061ecaeef53bd72cb3d805792d

Previous hash57bd887c05533dde4be48c43c9f05308561d0a288d6255c2e2a395d2abf4fca9