Ledger / Prediction #3473 · narrative · 24H

Will "veil" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 51% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

84 of 1939 launches in the last hour referenced "veil" (62 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.34×.

Made2026-10-14 00:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-15 00:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 23:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.423206832961382,
      "momentum": 0.29352355176466,
      "diversity": -0.014285714285714235
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5128027846757882
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "veil",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.05841584158415842,
    "share60": 0.04355670103092783,
    "total15": 504,
    "total60": 1939,
    "momentum": 1.3411447653641104,
    "diversity": 0.7380952380952381,
    "launches15": 29,
    "launches60": 84,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 62
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 239,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974308333333334,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998929513888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5128027846757882
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 00:04 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.237

Log loss0.668

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.005640007745933385,
  "shareRatio": 2.055315288319152,
  "totalAfter": 41312,
  "shareBefore": 0.0027383908472766935,
  "totalBefore": 43091,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 233,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 118
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 51% that "veil" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.27% → 0.56% (+106%). CORRECT.

— volume pointed the right way on "veil" (24H). volume contributed +0.42 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashc881a165caaf7d9ae9c15151791334adcc703f4c33f757cbe073f8f746ed3e30

Previous hash7a9a1d1e49b59a8508970406fe0a5bb80277aec906767feb19388a7505ddc5c9