Ledger / Prediction #3469 · narrative · 6H

Will "veil" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 55% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

84 of 1939 launches in the last hour referenced "veil" (62 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.34×.

Made2026-10-14 00:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 06:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 23:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.423206832961382,
      "momentum": 0.29352355176466,
      "diversity": -0.014285714285714235
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5477815630705299
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "veil",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.05841584158415842,
    "share60": 0.04355670103092783,
    "total15": 504,
    "total60": 1939,
    "momentum": 1.3411447653641104,
    "diversity": 0.7380952380952381,
    "launches15": 29,
    "launches60": 84,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 62
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 239,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974308333333334,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995718055555556
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5477815630705299
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 06:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.204

Log loss0.602

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.01561016770382871,
  "shareRatio": 2.300824687736677,
  "totalAfter": 9481,
  "shareBefore": 0.006772009029345372,
  "totalBefore": 14176,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 148,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 96
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 55% that "veil" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.68% → 1.56% (+131%). CORRECT.

— volume pointed the right way on "veil" (6H). volume contributed +0.42 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe51a4538418e9352607c27cbe220428fbf50bfb066923f9a97f773aaeefe9da1

Previous hash497152dbb88a8d7fb31ba25f44a712785fdb9f5fd0f5ec7ccc41c46c40f34bcd