Ledger / Prediction #3465 · narrative · 1H
Will "veil" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
84 of 1939 launches in the last hour referenced "veil" (62 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.34×.
Made2026-10-14 00:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 01:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 23:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.423206832961382,
"momentum": 0.29352355176466,
"diversity": -0.014285714285714235
},
"rawProbability": 0.5992748764919612
},
"features": {
"term": "veil",
"rank60": 2,
"share15": 0.05841584158415842,
"share60": 0.04355670103092783,
"total15": 504,
"total60": 1939,
"momentum": 1.3411447653641104,
"diversity": 0.7380952380952381,
"launches15": 29,
"launches60": 84,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 62
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 239,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9974308333333334,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9974308333333334
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5992748764919612
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 01:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.359
Log loss0.915
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.027761370348493797,
"shareRatio": 0.6450891765577079,
"totalAfter": 1693,
"shareBefore": 0.04323211528564076,
"totalBefore": 1943,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 47,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 84
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 60% that "veil" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.32% → 2.78% (-36%). INCORRECT.
— volume misled on "veil" (1H). volume contributed +0.42 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
8de62bca603c8490b42bf8614d81a74d0a659bd7872e18f9f9f238be0eda0a15Previous hash
df6146c47b19163c37a4d885410edcbf6eccc458de8d59a7c17cc77227540851