Will "mayweather" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 31% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

55 of 1913 launches in the last hour referenced "mayweather" (24 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.38×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.35968429091975557,
      "momentum": -0.9592421190697542,
      "diversity": -0.3763636363636364
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3126067073791205
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "mayweather",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.011111111111111112,
    "share60": 0.028996865203761754,
    "total15": 494,
    "total60": 1913,
    "momentum": 0.38318318318318323,
    "diversity": 0.43636363636363634,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 55,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 24
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 277,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999113888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999963078703704
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3126067073791205
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0007002970225302456,
  "shareRatio": 0.29169017879384057,
  "totalAfter": 41411,
  "shareBefore": 0.002430531211292622,
  "totalBefore": 42789,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 29,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 104
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity