Ledger / Prediction #3457 · narrative · 24H
Will "work" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 59% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
86 of 1913 launches in the last hour referenced "work" (86 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.81×.
Made2026-10-13 23:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 23:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 23:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.4267364075729111,
"momentum": 0.593550369618869,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.5890751439511158
},
"features": {
"term": "work",
"rank60": 4,
"share15": 0.08181818181818182,
"share60": 0.04519331243469175,
"total15": 494,
"total60": 1913,
"momentum": 1.8104046242774565,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 40,
"launches60": 86,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 86
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 277,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9999113888888889,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999963078703704
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5890751439511158
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 23:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.347
Log loss0.889
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.002728743570548888,
"shareRatio": 0.5001140960758983,
"totalAfter": 41411,
"shareBefore": 0.005468695225408399,
"totalBefore": 42789,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 113,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 234
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 59% that "work" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.55% → 0.27% (-50%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "work" (24H). momentum contributed +0.59 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
8459ae0aa842a6a4149acbdaeb3e57e93a030e2db711c9b3559de77e402314e1Previous hash
ab564a70597110fa8b5933e5338c3d844d89ea6b8388259f374066d6e38c01c2