Ledger / Prediction #3456 · narrative · 6H
Will "verifiable" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 31% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
5 of 1913 launches in the last hour referenced "verifiable" (5 distinct creators, rank #333). Last 15m momentum 0.35×.
Made2026-10-13 23:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 05:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 23:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0,
"momentum": -1.0455024633541612,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.30537073164665884
},
"features": {
"term": "verifiable",
"rank60": 333,
"share15": 0.00101010101010101,
"share60": 0.0028735632183908046,
"total15": 494,
"total60": 1913,
"momentum": 0.3515151515151515,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 0,
"launches60": 5,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 5
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 277,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9999113888888889,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999852314814814
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.30537073164665884
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 05:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.482
Log loss1.186
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0009151921903599756,
"shareRatio": 1.3206671992640473,
"totalAfter": 9834,
"shareBefore": 0.0006966213862765587,
"totalBefore": 14355,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 9,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 10
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 31% that "verifiable" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.07% → 0.09% (+31%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "verifiable" (6H). momentum contributed -1.05 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
ab564a70597110fa8b5933e5338c3d844d89ea6b8388259f374066d6e38c01c2Previous hash
50d56e2af320cd4ce8938f5c31fd537f59184f363e670a2d62ffbb4c4f4bd2e6