Ledger / Prediction #3455 · narrative · 6H
Will "work" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 65% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
86 of 1913 launches in the last hour referenced "work" (86 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.81×.
Made2026-10-13 23:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 05:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 23:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.4267364075729111,
"momentum": 0.593550369618869,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.651173338316295
},
"features": {
"term": "work",
"rank60": 4,
"share15": 0.08181818181818182,
"share60": 0.04519331243469175,
"total15": 494,
"total60": 1913,
"momentum": 1.8104046242774565,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 40,
"launches60": 86,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 86
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 277,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9999113888888889,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999852314814814
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.651173338316295
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 05:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.424
Log loss1.053
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0026438885499288182,
"shareRatio": 0.2919369598373157,
"totalAfter": 9834,
"shareBefore": 0.009195402298850575,
"totalBefore": 14355,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 26,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 132
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 65% that "work" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.92% → 0.26% (-71%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "work" (6H). momentum contributed +0.59 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
50d56e2af320cd4ce8938f5c31fd537f59184f363e670a2d62ffbb4c4f4bd2e6Previous hash
29b4f0f17d2d91b74c7a333485c6e72ad939f2083e0d92d52dee3298a3af6652