Will "lady" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 75% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
5 of 1913 launches in the last hour referenced "lady" (4 distinct creators, rank #293). Last 15m momentum 3.87×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0,
"momentum": 1.3523928094442093,
"diversity": 0.06000000000000005
},
"rawProbability": 0.7525749359072544
},
"features": {
"term": "lady",
"rank60": 293,
"share15": 0.011111111111111112,
"share60": 0.0028735632183908046,
"total15": 494,
"total60": 1913,
"momentum": 3.8666666666666667,
"diversity": 0.8,
"launches15": 5,
"launches60": 5,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 4
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 277,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9999113888888889,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999113888888889
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.7525749359072544
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.0015764582238570678,
"shareRatio": 0.6400401069518716,
"totalAfter": 1903,
"shareBefore": 0.002612330198537095,
"totalBefore": 1914,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 3,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 5
}Predicted 75% that "lady" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.26% → 0.16% (-40%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "lady" (1H). momentum contributed +1.35 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
— Overconfident: 75% and wrong on "lady". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.
2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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