GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3452 · narrative · 1H

Will "lady" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 75% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1913 launches in the last hour referenced "lady" (4 distinct creators, rank #293). Last 15m momentum 3.87×.

Made2026-10-13 23:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 00:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 23:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 1.3523928094442093,
      "diversity": 0.06000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7525749359072544
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "lady",
    "rank60": 293,
    "share15": 0.011111111111111112,
    "share60": 0.0028735632183908046,
    "total15": 494,
    "total60": 1913,
    "momentum": 3.8666666666666667,
    "diversity": 0.8,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 277,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999113888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999113888888889
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7525749359072544
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 00:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.566
Log loss1.397
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0015764582238570678,
  "shareRatio": 0.6400401069518716,
  "totalAfter": 1903,
  "shareBefore": 0.002612330198537095,
  "totalBefore": 1914,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 5
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 75% that "lady" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.26% → 0.16% (-40%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "lady" (1H). momentum contributed +1.35 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 75% and wrong on "lady". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashcc7522165155a891d4045abf44e309c57cafc35ac87db0d521b656a3f3764d62
Previous hasha15c7833dd041204e34c6876703babab19a22f4d402348bb1e40be132cb994ba