Ledger / Prediction #3451 · narrative · 1H
Will "work" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 74% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
86 of 1913 launches in the last hour referenced "work" (86 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.81×.
Made2026-10-13 23:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 00:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 23:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.4267364075729111,
"momentum": 0.593550369618869,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.7350284564227295
},
"features": {
"term": "work",
"rank60": 4,
"share15": 0.08181818181818182,
"share60": 0.04519331243469175,
"total15": 494,
"total60": 1913,
"momentum": 1.8104046242774565,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 40,
"launches60": 86,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 86
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 277,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9999113888888889,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999113888888889
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.7350284564227295
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 00:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.540
Log loss1.328
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.008933263268523384,
"shareRatio": 0.20348095885753145,
"totalAfter": 1903,
"shareBefore": 0.04493207941483804,
"totalBefore": 1914,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 17,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 86
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 74% that "work" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.49% → 0.89% (-80%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "work" (1H). momentum contributed +0.59 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
a15c7833dd041204e34c6876703babab19a22f4d402348bb1e40be132cb994baPrevious hash
6387c6a90f93611d9c8b00fc1a7da29001507460369ad85b2f505eb3b4cbe70f