Ledger / Prediction #3450 · narrative · 1H
Will "agents" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 74% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
100 of 1913 launches in the last hour referenced "agents" (98 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.83×.
Made2026-10-13 23:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 00:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 23:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.4493598410330986,
"momentum": 0.6029647929856742,
"diversity": 0.27599999999999997
},
"rawProbability": 0.7365909622957838
},
"features": {
"term": "agents",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.09595959595959595,
"share60": 0.052507836990595615,
"total15": 494,
"total60": 1913,
"momentum": 1.827529021558872,
"diversity": 0.98,
"launches15": 47,
"launches60": 100,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 98
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 277,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9999113888888889,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999113888888889
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.7365909622957838
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 00:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.543
Log loss1.334
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.013137151865475564,
"shareRatio": 0.2551972281449893,
"totalAfter": 1903,
"shareBefore": 0.0522466039707419,
"totalBefore": 1914,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 25,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 100
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 74% that "agents" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.22% → 1.31% (-75%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "agents" (1H). momentum contributed +0.60 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
6387c6a90f93611d9c8b00fc1a7da29001507460369ad85b2f505eb3b4cbe70fPrevious hash
becec24c0de5e74f9d9a7713513b27a34315accb1eb04a0b7701ab8c97c2dd0d