Will "engineers" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
33 of 1959 launches in the last hour referenced "engineers" (33 distinct creators, rank #13). Last 15m momentum 2.33×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.28306044735485697,
"momentum": 0.8470404932515662,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.6022982663583916
},
"features": {
"term": "engineers",
"rank60": 13,
"share15": 0.03987068965517242,
"share60": 0.017091836734693878,
"total15": 463,
"total60": 1959,
"momentum": 2.3327328872877,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 18,
"launches60": 33,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 33
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 281,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9946308333333334,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997762847222222
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6022982663583916
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.0021264770557958583,
"shareRatio": 1.6193991008452668,
"totalAfter": 41383,
"shareBefore": 0.0013089005235602095,
"totalBefore": 42784,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 88,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 56
}Predicted 60% that "engineers" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.13% → 0.21% (+62%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "engineers" (24H). momentum contributed +0.85 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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