Ledger / Prediction #3442 · narrative · 24H

Will "floyd" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 49% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

60 of 1959 launches in the last hour referenced "floyd" (33 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.43×.

Made2026-10-13 23:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 23:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 22:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3727359974682,
      "momentum": 0.3585967211058744,
      "diversity": -0.23999999999999994
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4864199305180266
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "floyd",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.04418103448275862,
    "share60": 0.03086734693877551,
    "total15": 463,
    "total60": 1959,
    "momentum": 1.4313194642348248,
    "diversity": 0.55,
    "launches15": 20,
    "launches60": 60,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 33
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 281,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946308333333334,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997762847222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4864199305180266
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 23:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.237

Log loss0.666

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0018606674238213759,
  "shareRatio": 0.6333886079208784,
  "totalAfter": 41383,
  "shareBefore": 0.0029450261780104713,
  "totalBefore": 42784,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 77,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 126
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 49% that "floyd" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.29% → 0.19% (-37%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "floyd" (24H). diversity contributed -0.24 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8f2f03998aee0ffad249f0d42b465f5aa11956ce963a2ac68871a40079a99d91

Previous hash34a4ae8a671a876d68a30a5414157c3ce8f72b229dd4f07eca3bcdc8f7e61686