Ledger / Prediction #3441 · narrative · 24H

Will "john" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 22% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

72 of 1959 launches in the last hour referenced "john" (33 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.15×.

Made2026-10-13 23:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 23:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 22:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.40008423098729323,
      "momentum": -1.9264806299881663,
      "diversity": -0.35000000000000003
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2247497709002233
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "john",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.005387931034482759,
    "share60": 0.036989795918367346,
    "total15": 463,
    "total60": 1959,
    "momentum": 0.1456599286563615,
    "diversity": 0.4583333333333333,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 72,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 33
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 281,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946308333333334,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997762847222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2247497709002233
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 23:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.601

Log loss1.493

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0024406157117657008,
  "shareRatio": 1.1857191731076504,
  "totalAfter": 41383,
  "shareBefore": 0.002056843679880329,
  "totalBefore": 42784,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 101,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 88
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 22% that "john" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.21% → 0.24% (+19%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "john" (24H). momentum contributed -1.93 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

— Overconfident: 78% and wrong on "john". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash34a4ae8a671a876d68a30a5414157c3ce8f72b229dd4f07eca3bcdc8f7e61686

Previous hash35855415f9eed0e84a4896df3a830e1dbeb5bb968f4140594e433dc83e750eb9