Ledger / Prediction #344 · narrative · 6H

Will "qcat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 21% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

10 of 2716 launches in the last hour referenced "qcat" (8 distinct creators, rank #173). Last 15m momentum 0.19×.

Made2026-10-09 21:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 03:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 20:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.1039720770839918,
      "momentum": -1.6460079652687571,
      "diversity": 0.06000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.20793381525730206
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "qcat",
    "rank60": 173,
    "share15": 0.0007451564828614009,
    "share60": 0.0038645564961354434,
    "total15": 670,
    "total60": 2716,
    "momentum": 0.19281811085089773,
    "diversity": 0.8,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 10,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 508,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9949161111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991526851851852
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.20793381525730206
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 03:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.043

Log loss0.233

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0015558698727015559,
  "shareRatio": 0.5377978926525706,
  "totalAfter": 14140,
  "shareBefore": 0.002926258291065158,
  "totalBefore": 15378,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 22,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 45
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 21% that "qcat" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.29% → 0.16% (-47%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "qcat" (6H). momentum contributed -1.65 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf93a5178e9d748ab541901d5c092995257c111e16b9e8a9c42716d79a398869f

Previous hash58d04f95bea97d802f10e263eafffd31855f06707d996ab5dd48f253f6b6c472