Ledger / Prediction #3435 · narrative · 1H

Will "dog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 44% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

57 of 1959 launches in the last hour referenced "dog" (14 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.36×.

Made2026-10-13 23:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 00:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 22:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3650420033100675,
      "momentum": 0.30680098427928204,
      "diversity": -0.6052631578947368
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.44190847781722464
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dog",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.03987068965517242,
    "share60": 0.029336734693877552,
    "total15": 463,
    "total60": 1959,
    "momentum": 1.3590704647676162,
    "diversity": 0.24561403508771928,
    "launches15": 18,
    "launches60": 57,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 14
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 281,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946308333333334,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9946308333333334
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.44190847781722464
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 00:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.195

Log loss0.583

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.017498713329902212,
  "shareRatio": 0.608641975308642,
  "totalAfter": 1943,
  "shareBefore": 0.0289193302891933,
  "totalBefore": 1971,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 34,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 57
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 44% that "dog" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.89% → 1.75% (-39%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "dog" (1H). diversity contributed -0.61 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashde7f80022efc913311cba502e5e6ccb3f30c124646266bd7ae569ff9c6edc616

Previous hashbc9222dc0a25be4454296fb007765c4bc692df9a40100df454866ae5b79badc8