Will "pair" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 63% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
23 of 2673 launches in the last hour referenced "pair" (14 distinct creators, rank #36). Last 15m momentum 5.00×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.22890844552425738,
"momentum": 1.6100207821705204,
"diversity": -0.16956521739130428
},
"rawProbability": 0.6305744517281021
},
"features": {
"term": "pair",
"rank60": 36,
"share15": 0.04396728016359918,
"share60": 0.008788332086761406,
"total15": 488,
"total60": 2673,
"momentum": 5.002915198189966,
"diversity": 0.6086956521739131,
"launches15": 21,
"launches60": 23,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 14
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 308,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9971430555555556,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998809606481481
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6305744517281021
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.0033782141641957907,
"shareRatio": 0.9359145005707323,
"totalAfter": 41146,
"shareBefore": 0.0036108652098961,
"totalBefore": 42926,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 139,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 155
}Predicted 63% that "pair" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.36% → 0.34% (-6%). PARTIAL.
— "pair" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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