Will "hopecoin" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 15% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

55 of 2673 launches in the last hour referenced "hopecoin" (29 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 0.05×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.35968429091975557,
      "momentum": -3.0105619331253175,
      "diversity": -0.26727272727272733
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.14690620421913705
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "hopecoin",
    "rank60": 10,
    "share15": 0.0010224948875255625,
    "share60": 0.02075542258788332,
    "total15": 488,
    "total60": 2673,
    "momentum": 0.04926398791429467,
    "diversity": 0.5272727272727272,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 55,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 29
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 308,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9971430555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998809606481481
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.14690620421913705
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0000243036990229913,
  "shareRatio": 0.02544535446083554,
  "totalAfter": 41146,
  "shareBefore": 0.0014210501793784653,
  "totalBefore": 42926,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 61
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity