Ledger / Prediction #3424 · narrative · 6H

Will "doomed" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 47% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 2673 launches in the last hour referenced "doomed" (6 distinct creators, rank #180). Last 15m momentum 1.09×.

Made2026-10-13 22:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 04:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 22:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": 0.08953035575291614,
      "diversity": 0.1285714285714285
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.47202944048010714
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "doomed",
    "rank60": 180,
    "share15": 0.003067484662576687,
    "share60": 0.002804786836200449,
    "total15": 488,
    "total60": 2673,
    "momentum": 1.0936605316973416,
    "diversity": 0.8571428571428571,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 308,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9971430555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995238425925926
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.47202944048010714
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 04:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.279

Log loss0.751

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0031288518062008155,
  "shareRatio": 2.084980828382421,
  "totalAfter": 10547,
  "shareBefore": 0.0014895057549085984,
  "totalBefore": 14770,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 33,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 22
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 47% that "doomed" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.15% → 0.31% (+110%). INCORRECT.

— diversity was right but too weak on "doomed" (6H). diversity contributed +0.13 toward yes, the true outcome, but could not overcome the prior.

— The prior was wrong on "doomed" (6H). Every active signal pointed the right way; the base assumption outweighed them.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash2d78735056f5a580fb2edd936936c7153c4c2841ff83d62581a7f7a5e05dd2e6

Previous hasha2c1eb7ba7cdbfc57e6f6adeab37354b5265c259276c81d4f2f3e1bec29fcc5c