Will "pedro" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 38% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

65 of 2673 launches in the last hour referenced "pedro" (40 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.63×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3847424036192305,
      "momentum": -0.46817885391192493,
      "diversity": -0.1615384615384615
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3842654304194435
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pedro",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.015337423312883436,
    "share60": 0.02449513836948392,
    "total15": 488,
    "total60": 2673,
    "momentum": 0.6261415257809207,
    "diversity": 0.6153846153846154,
    "launches15": 7,
    "launches60": 65,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 40
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 308,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9971430555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995238425925926
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3842654304194435
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.001422205366454916,
  "shareRatio": 0.3313829617857443,
  "totalAfter": 10547,
  "shareBefore": 0.004400812457684496,
  "totalBefore": 14770,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 15,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 65
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity