Ledger / Prediction #3418 · narrative · 1H

Will "hello" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 17% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

92 of 2673 launches in the last hour referenced "hello" (21 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.33×.

Made2026-10-13 22:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 23:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 22:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.436852599692241,
      "momentum": -1.1234922840929378,
      "diversity": -0.6260869565217391
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.16621039941200946
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "hello",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.011247443762781187,
    "share60": 0.03459237097980553,
    "total15": 488,
    "total60": 2673,
    "momentum": 0.3251423202343448,
    "diversity": 0.22826086956521738,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 92,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 21
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 308,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9971430555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9971430555555556
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.16621039941200946
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 23:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.028

Log loss0.182

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0010449320794148381,
  "shareRatio": 0.03782372450779761,
  "totalAfter": 1914,
  "shareBefore": 0.03434117207913401,
  "totalBefore": 2679,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 92
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 17% that "hello" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.43% → 0.10% (-97%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "hello" (1H). momentum contributed -1.12 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash0280c4d31f1bd3f8245f1c2937a0d8709164784c32abb1111a19b144494a038e

Previous hash6c7421e6c6a4ced504d21f54176e8a8044be546a744026a79d6ac0a2361cc8be