Ledger / Prediction #3415 · token · 1H

Will $LAPTOP still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 21m ago. X link, website. No hot term. Creator launched 4 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-13 22:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 23:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 22:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.04545816672765576
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "CQ5ENRpyGrnshamBYnCsLT7FX4uJaCXpEMc8cd8Jpump",
    "name": "apeonlaptop",
    "symbol": "LAPTOP",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 21,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3002.2520492118792,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 4
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 1322,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.04545816672765576
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 23:01 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.002

Log loss0.047

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-13T21:41:05.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 2992.558344106812,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 5222.987010104901,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3002.2520492118792,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6004.5040984237585
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that $LAPTOP would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $2,993, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $LAPTOP (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash3ed83a2850bfe88b2d088c34fe22ad58e5bd9206151efc098e57acc275871ecf

Previous hash86051ec75937f63d50c264553789d95401e723baf52cafe1e4f15ff7be0e9863