Ledger / Prediction #3414 · token · 6H

Will $Muskratcoin still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 19m ago. X link, website. No hot term. Creator launched 6 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-13 22:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 04:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 22:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.04545816672765576
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "GFvjHyXr7D6uXapN7YRCRBeJV1dPuqMz4CjLv7K1pump",
    "name": "MuskratCoin",
    "symbol": "Muskratcoin",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 19,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3368.6089380246162,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 6
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 1322,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.04545816672765576
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 04:01 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.002

Log loss0.047

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": null,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-13T21:44:42.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3068.7631014161775,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 5430.95321233202,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3368.6089380246162,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6737.2178760492325
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that $Muskratcoin would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,069, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $Muskratcoin (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash86051ec75937f63d50c264553789d95401e723baf52cafe1e4f15ff7be0e9863

Previous hash2b9a57aa7118506724004ab43a25806c59096a4c2c5cb187944e0eff22e24f33