GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3411 · narrative · 24H

Will "credit" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 10% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

83 of 3029 launches in the last hour referenced "credit" (14 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.03×.

Made2026-10-13 22:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 22:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 22:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.42141040430437465,
      "momentum": -3.539427563649742,
      "diversity": -0.6975903614457831
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.09905189444014693
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "credit",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.0008,
    "share60": 0.027557755775577557,
    "total15": 624,
    "total60": 3029,
    "momentum": 0.02902994011976048,
    "diversity": 0.1686746987951807,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 83,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 14
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 340,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996402777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999985011574074
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.09905189444014693
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 22:05 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.010
Log loss0.104
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.00029206318300192276,
  "shareRatio": 0.13152918995287965,
  "totalAfter": 41087,
  "shareBefore": 0.002301415719366762,
  "totalBefore": 43017,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 12,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 99
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 10% that "credit" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.23% → 0.03% (-87%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "credit" (24H). momentum contributed -3.54 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1339346e5fa95b40362056321d9f8e8190373798c28e8b0eef4f364d9af3568c
Previous hashd0414f288a8764be72707a9df26cb051c14cfb5b1be1a69205d5f786cc0eb436