Ledger / Prediction #341 · narrative · 6H

Will "emoji" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 33% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

63 of 2716 launches in the last hour referenced "emoji" (50 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.35×.

Made2026-10-09 21:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 03:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 20:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3800545220936148,
      "momentum": -1.0477773412055549,
      "diversity": 0.05238095238095233
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3250325126198635
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "emoji",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.00819672131147541,
    "share60": 0.023371365476628634,
    "total15": 670,
    "total60": 2716,
    "momentum": 0.3507164063508455,
    "diversity": 0.7936507936507936,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 63,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 50
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 508,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9949161111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991526851851852
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3250325126198635
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 03:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.106

Log loss0.393

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0010608203677510608,
  "shareRatio": 0.2203526296547424,
  "totalAfter": 14140,
  "shareBefore": 0.004942125113798933,
  "totalBefore": 15378,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 15,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 76
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 33% that "emoji" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.49% → 0.11% (-79%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "emoji" (6H). momentum contributed -1.05 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash4be4f3a01e9956745b7a168df5081cd96b83997e3662b084f52f63cdbfb1711c

Previous hash8faa8dff4165cb5dee8a70cad4cd9d5a196852f403da2020f66bc7b58d0d2a74