Ledger / Prediction #3408 · narrative · 6H
Will "views" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 61% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
5 of 3029 launches in the last hour referenced "views" (5 distinct creators, rank #374). Last 15m momentum 2.20×.
Made2026-10-13 22:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 04:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 22:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0,
"momentum": 0.7901088884027432,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.6137436872816526
},
"features": {
"term": "views",
"rank60": 374,
"share15": 0.004,
"share60": 0.0018151815181518152,
"total15": 624,
"total60": 3029,
"momentum": 2.2036363636363636,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 2,
"launches60": 5,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 5
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 340,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9996402777777778,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999400462962963
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6137436872816526
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 04:04 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.377
Log loss0.951
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0012195121951219512,
"shareRatio": 0.8441984804427352,
"totalAfter": 10660,
"shareBefore": 0.0014667644509633977,
"totalBefore": 14999,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 13,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 22
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 61% that "views" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.15% → 0.12% (-17%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "views" (6H). momentum contributed +0.79 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
63a1a901896dc83589fa3fa672b46603c9394ce19ed00fd9fecd26e953285f4fPrevious hash
d854f5ed4f68fc11afa468e3cea0959ffdc030591bc17a8f6584f3f40ab0cf63