Ledger / Prediction #3405 · narrative · 6H

Will "test" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 8% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

244 of 3029 launches in the last hour referenced "test" (37 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.05×.

Made2026-10-13 22:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 04:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 22:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.5831595469288652,
      "momentum": -3.0043583282737583,
      "diversity": -0.7180327868852459
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.07603628802570386
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "test",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.004,
    "share60": 0.0806930693069307,
    "total15": 624,
    "total60": 3029,
    "momentum": 0.049570552147239266,
    "diversity": 0.15163934426229508,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 244,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 37
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 340,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996402777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999400462962963
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.07603628802570386
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 04:04 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.006

Log loss0.079

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00300187617260788,
  "shareRatio": 0.15686935742932473,
  "totalAfter": 10660,
  "shareBefore": 0.019401293419561302,
  "totalBefore": 14999,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 32,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 291
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 8% that "test" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.94% → 0.30% (-85%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "test" (6H). momentum contributed -3.00 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5850a551b44f64ea5bae1293a4d10feaf61f80ba4f83665c8bc8390106daa914

Previous hashc3f523f4a19850bd7cb1cf4c9809bb28af7e31df2497e522aaf2b9fe7e603c24