Ledger / Prediction #3404 · narrative · 1H

Will "dude" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 15% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 3029 launches in the last hour referenced "dude" (3 distinct creators, rank #195). Last 15m momentum 0.32×.

Made2026-10-13 22:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 23:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 22:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": -1.1294839523351967,
      "diversity": -0.38571428571428573
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.14619925410043697
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dude",
    "rank60": 195,
    "share15": 0.0008,
    "share60": 0.0024752475247524753,
    "total15": 624,
    "total60": 3029,
    "momentum": 0.3232,
    "diversity": 0.42857142857142855,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 340,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996402777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996402777777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.14619925410043697
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 23:04 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.021

Log loss0.158

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0005076142131979696,
  "shareRatio": 0.3076610857432775,
  "totalAfter": 1970,
  "shareBefore": 0.0023094688221709007,
  "totalBefore": 3031,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 7
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 15% that "dude" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.23% → 0.05% (-78%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "dude" (1H). momentum contributed -1.13 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashc3f523f4a19850bd7cb1cf4c9809bb28af7e31df2497e522aaf2b9fe7e603c24

Previous hash9d41810eefb51a48c93d8d52b93b57494d94416a7b30db17404b1f8fe1be5bd8