Ledger / Prediction #340 · narrative · 1H

Will "deep" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 12% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

10 of 2716 launches in the last hour referenced "deep" (6 distinct creators, rank #161). Last 15m momentum 0.19×.

Made2026-10-09 21:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 22:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 20:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.1039720770839918,
      "momentum": -1.6460079652687571,
      "diversity": -0.18000000000000002
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.1169086397372109
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "deep",
    "rank60": 161,
    "share15": 0.0007451564828614009,
    "share60": 0.0038645564961354434,
    "total15": 670,
    "total60": 2716,
    "momentum": 0.19281811085089773,
    "diversity": 0.6,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 10,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 508,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9949161111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9949161111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.1169086397372109
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 22:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.014

Log loss0.124

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.001213101496158512,
  "shareRatio": 0.36822958771220693,
  "totalAfter": 2473,
  "shareBefore": 0.0036603221083455345,
  "totalBefore": 2732,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 10
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 12% that "deep" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.37% → 0.12% (-67%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "deep" (1H). momentum contributed -1.65 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8faa8dff4165cb5dee8a70cad4cd9d5a196852f403da2020f66bc7b58d0d2a74

Previous hash0bf52b94bda18fcab9e00ffea3f069181c7f4d60c5185c4faa98e9f611ac0b26