Will "charity" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 24% → FADES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
59 of 2681 launches in the last hour referenced "charity" (29 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.16×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3702149297207429,
"momentum": -1.8120591144271103,
"diversity": -0.31016949152542367
},
"rawProbability": 0.23577093682766626
},
"features": {
"term": "charity",
"rank60": 8,
"share15": 0.0036231884057971015,
"share60": 0.022184936614466817,
"total15": 689,
"total60": 2681,
"momentum": 0.16331750091340883,
"diversity": 0.4915254237288136,
"launches15": 2,
"launches60": 59,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 29
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 285,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9929736111111112,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997072337962963
}{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.23577093682766626
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.0029098429646730634,
"shareRatio": 0.9743676866668175,
"totalAfter": 41583,
"shareBefore": 0.0029869702243755587,
"totalBefore": 42518,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 121,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 127
}Predicted 24% that "charity" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.30% → 0.29% (-3%). PARTIAL.
— "charity" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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