Ledger / Prediction #3386 · narrative · 1H

Will "hello" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 25% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

118 of 2681 launches in the last hour referenced "hello" (4 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.67×.

Made2026-10-13 21:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 22:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 21:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4741870068047347,
      "momentum": -0.3968616081805046,
      "diversity": -0.8593220338983051
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.25312835796655614
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "hello",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.029710144927536233,
    "share60": 0.0441834451901566,
    "total15": 689,
    "total60": 2681,
    "momentum": 0.6724270776004403,
    "diversity": 0.03389830508474576,
    "launches15": 20,
    "launches60": 118,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 285,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9929736111111112,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9929736111111112
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.25312835796655614
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 22:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.064

Log loss0.292

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.03434117207913401,
  "shareRatio": 0.7875810819321116,
  "totalAfter": 2679,
  "shareBefore": 0.0436551979282279,
  "totalBefore": 2703,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 92,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 118
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 25% that "hello" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.37% → 3.43% (-21%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "hello" (1H). diversity contributed -0.86 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb4e7af913ca6265823204f74e8ddda34049c727328409dee5b29fdeba154f205

Previous hash9abdc1697fc12acf92901da863f6399bfd90cb13201fb8375963cd87058716dd