Ledger / Prediction #338 · narrative · 1H

Will "butt" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 26% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

62 of 2716 launches in the last hour referenced "butt" (43 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.36×.

Made2026-10-09 21:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 22:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 20:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.37765447089164866,
      "momentum": -1.0319039920492645,
      "diversity": -0.0677419354838709
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.26463967048281944
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "butt",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.00819672131147541,
    "share60": 0.023003312476996687,
    "total15": 670,
    "total60": 2716,
    "momentum": 0.35632786885245904,
    "diversity": 0.6935483870967742,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 62,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 43
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 508,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9949161111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9949161111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.26463967048281944
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 22:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.070

Log loss0.307

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.007278608976951072,
  "shareRatio": 0.3269878738884398,
  "totalAfter": 2473,
  "shareBefore": 0.022693997071742314,
  "totalBefore": 2732,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 18,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 62
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 26% that "butt" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.27% → 0.73% (-68%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "butt" (1H). momentum contributed -1.03 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb4ad2aaab8ad203838278c8639d39b98ba8e47f8718efa3c0f361d6dbdc6c54a

Previous hash9e3bd3f19e164f4ea25cd09e4ade0a92b1c902060429382e292a77ec76232382