Ledger / Prediction #3374 · narrative · 6H

Will "humans" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 41% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

69 of 2626 launches in the last hour referenced "humans" (31 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.88×.

Made2026-10-13 21:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 03:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 20:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3937002888244739,
      "momentum": -0.12426706547295768,
      "diversity": -0.3608695652173913
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.40999030901181593
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "humans",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.02336448598130841,
    "share60": 0.02645603349828702,
    "total15": 748,
    "total60": 2626,
    "momentum": 0.8831439521280172,
    "diversity": 0.4492753623188406,
    "launches15": 17,
    "launches60": 69,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 31
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 267,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9960316666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993386111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.40999030901181593
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 03:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.168

Log loss0.528

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002004008016032064,
  "shareRatio": 0.3576678532844518,
  "totalAfter": 11976,
  "shareBefore": 0.005684969495285635,
  "totalBefore": 14424,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 24,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 82
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 41% that "humans" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.57% → 0.20% (-65%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "humans" (6H). diversity contributed -0.36 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5bce002d0f73f8f9dfcd9194c34719f6c2a4f17c19634fdc7c1c0a156e402d9f

Previous hash43533a068467b8f14da0afe8d6c631a81b6ad81485fc060aa26fe17da5905359