Ledger / Prediction #3372 · narrative · 1H

Will "energy" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 55% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

14 of 2626 launches in the last hour referenced "energy" (11 distinct creators, rank #84). Last 15m momentum 1.33×.

Made2026-10-13 21:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 22:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 20:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.1544429125771737,
      "momentum": 0.2854582489802169,
      "diversity": 0.04285714285714284
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5455628278372123
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "energy",
    "rank60": 84,
    "share15": 0.007343124165554072,
    "share60": 0.005519604111153407,
    "total15": 748,
    "total60": 2626,
    "momentum": 1.3303715298558998,
    "diversity": 0.7857142857142857,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 14,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 11
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 267,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9960316666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9960316666666666
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5455628278372123
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 22:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.298

Log loss0.789

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.004289013526888816,
  "shareRatio": 0.7569261213720317,
  "totalAfter": 3031,
  "shareBefore": 0.0056947608200455585,
  "totalBefore": 2634,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 13,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 15
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 55% that "energy" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.57% → 0.43% (-25%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "energy" (1H). momentum contributed +0.29 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf71a8e1e02f44e6ceca5cb3ba65e05d4d87c4a80b333df908d66f0828b32d419

Previous hash14af4e3d917998bba714d6b852d8a385681f41f0bfe9a14119bdbe26e5a72014