Ledger / Prediction #3370 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

122 of 2626 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (69 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.19×.

Made2026-10-13 21:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 22:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 20:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4791874698448734,
      "momentum": 0.17244120342019137,
      "diversity": -0.22131147540983612
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.532533270938776
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.05540720961281709,
    "share60": 0.046631138180433955,
    "total15": 748,
    "total60": 2626,
    "momentum": 1.1882019563499633,
    "diversity": 0.5655737704918032,
    "launches15": 41,
    "launches60": 122,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 69
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 267,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9960316666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9960316666666666
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.532533270938776
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 22:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.284

Log loss0.760

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.027053777631144835,
  "shareRatio": 0.5805483746915492,
  "totalAfter": 3031,
  "shareBefore": 0.04669703872437358,
  "totalBefore": 2634,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 82,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 123
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 53% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.67% → 2.71% (-42%). INCORRECT.

— volume misled on "cat" (1H). volume contributed +0.48 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash38d99acae0d1ed33822d7d84504377616b32ae7075e2eefdbfe1d42ba0bec0da

Previous hash8f5be1faf163dacc052f6f5c1d67b751da1dc96832053f1d097284151950a922