Ledger / Prediction #337 · narrative · 1H

Will "emoji" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 29% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

63 of 2716 launches in the last hour referenced "emoji" (50 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.35×.

Made2026-10-09 21:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 22:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 20:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3800545220936148,
      "momentum": -1.0477773412055549,
      "diversity": 0.05238095238095233
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.28590797102903404
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "emoji",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.00819672131147541,
    "share60": 0.023371365476628634,
    "total15": 670,
    "total60": 2716,
    "momentum": 0.3507164063508455,
    "diversity": 0.7936507936507936,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 63,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 50
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 508,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9949161111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9949161111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.28590797102903404
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 22:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.082

Log loss0.337

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0028305701577031944,
  "shareRatio": 0.13047505076416782,
  "totalAfter": 2473,
  "shareBefore": 0.023060029282576867,
  "totalBefore": 2732,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 7,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 63
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 29% that "emoji" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.31% → 0.28% (-88%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "emoji" (1H). momentum contributed -1.05 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash9e3bd3f19e164f4ea25cd09e4ade0a92b1c902060429382e292a77ec76232382

Previous hash39e3b383a2db134d444ef5225c7f2cea029d3d5b8e5da20b4f00798308c18b67