Ledger / Prediction #3358 · narrative · 6H

Will "taku" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 47% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

67 of 2540 launches in the last hour referenced "taku" (34 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.19×.

Made2026-10-13 20:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 02:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 20:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3892882060435298,
      "momentum": 0.17434427029410254,
      "diversity": -0.29104477611940294
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4727299353121097
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "taku",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.03162393162393162,
    "share60": 0.026564344746162927,
    "total15": 584,
    "total60": 2540,
    "momentum": 1.1904653371320038,
    "diversity": 0.5074626865671642,
    "launches15": 18,
    "launches60": 67,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 34
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 319,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990919444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998486574074074
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4727299353121097
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 02:34 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.223

Log loss0.640

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0007242295002816448,
  "shareRatio": 0.160343430008702,
  "totalAfter": 12427,
  "shareBefore": 0.004732306822997598,
  "totalBefore": 14158,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 9,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 67
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 47% that "taku" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.47% → 0.07% (-85%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "taku" (6H). diversity contributed -0.29 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash7ddb47832ddfecf8c1ed72a72695c8a68ffd1bf32628fae2545d6278dd05b6ac

Previous hashae4deb6820a0b103171880ae40bc63dbff50d2c33c1154937753403cca98a407