Will "nasbot" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 28% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

148 of 2540 launches in the last hour referenced "nasbot" (65 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.34×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.5081661541995022,
      "momentum": -1.0895367867852424,
      "diversity": -0.37297297297297294
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2752712395981302
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "nasbot",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.019658119658119658,
    "share60": 0.05844155844155844,
    "total15": 584,
    "total60": 2540,
    "momentum": 0.336372269705603,
    "diversity": 0.4391891891891892,
    "launches15": 11,
    "launches60": 148,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 65
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 319,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990919444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998486574074074
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2752712395981302
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0008046994447573831,
  "shareRatio": 0.08055531172685984,
  "totalAfter": 12427,
  "shareBefore": 0.010453453877666337,
  "totalBefore": 14158,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 10,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 148
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity