GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3356 · narrative · 1H

Will "mascot" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 77% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 2540 launches in the last hour referenced "mascot" (7 distinct creators, rank #215). Last 15m momentum 3.19×.

Made2026-10-13 20:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 21:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 20:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": 1.1585462077844682,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7701249799718543
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "mascot",
    "rank60": 215,
    "share15": 0.009401709401709401,
    "share60": 0.0029515938606847697,
    "total15": 584,
    "total60": 2540,
    "momentum": 3.1852991452991453,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 319,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990919444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990919444444445
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7701249799718543
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 21:34 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.593
Log loss1.470
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.002589715131335553,
  "shareRatio": 0.9397189349112426,
  "totalAfter": 2703,
  "shareBefore": 0.0027559055118110236,
  "totalBefore": 2540,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 7,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 7
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 77% that "mascot" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.28% → 0.26% (-6%). PARTIAL.

— "mascot" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash3752a3ee0f5dfb16f21bf93db70d8fcb25fa53aaa04812e816c8d34cbc0071d4
Previous hashd48776bdf51474527936c2b565b8925e6a04511f052b469d43b47756730441bf